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A Whole-Ebola-Trouble

Zach Nilsson*, Eastern Oregon University (Undergraduate Student)
Jeremy Bard*, Eastern Oregon University (Undergraduate Student)
Katie Hamann, Eastern Oregon University (Undergraduate Student)
Talk Abstract: 
In this talk we develop a mathematical model that not only fits the current Ebola outbreak, but also extrapolates the situation by considering the spread of the disease, the quantities of drug necessary, rate of drug synthesis, systems and locations of drug delivery, and any other critical factors (burial rates, isolation, symptom progression) that affect the outbreak, with the ultimate goal of eradicating the disease. We employ four different models; all based upon the same algorithm and use a fourth-order Runge-Kutta method that explores the effects of isolation, medication, safe burials, and vaccination. Then optimize a combination of these variables to achieve eradication quickly and with a minimal number of deaths, in a realistic fashion. We quantitatively compare the impact factor of each variable, which considers the number of days passed and total deaths at the point of eradication. We conclude that vaccination is 19 times more effective than medication, whereas safe burial is 21 times more effective than medication, and 1.1 times more effective than vaccination. Due to the impracticality of enforcing such strict methods of burial, we deem the vaccine rate to be the most feasible option, while still maintaining a high impact factor.
Talk Subject: 
Talk Type: 
Oral Presentation
Tuesday, March 3, 2015 - 12:00